Unless it undergoes some truly revolutionary innovation, the web search market is unlikely to change much.
Jimmy Wales of Wikipedia fame has announced that he is building a search “engine” to compete with the likes of Google and Yahoo. This search service is supposed to address “niche” markets (e.g. the Startreck conventioneers that also breed Lhasa apso - Rottweiler hybrids, and other folks with similar fringe interests) This new, for profit venture named Wikia is supposed to can take up to 5% of the search market.
Assuming that there are about 100 million households in the US and that 68% have internet access, this works out to about 3.4 million users of wikia or, in other terms, approximately 3.4% of US households have interests that are off the mainstream. This is equivalent to having the city of Dallas populated by folks whose interests are... well, difficult to address.
The numbers seem to work out well but I am not sure that the venture is supposed to generate much money given its lack of differentiation – Wikia is a spawn of the infamous Wikipedia and it shows: the look and feel spells “wikipedia” at every click and the editorial style is the same. Wikia’s format seems like an un-paid, free-for-all version of About.com. I fail to see how Wikia can add much value beyond that from About.com.
Also, why would volunteers contribute to a profitable venture unless they are paid? I can fathom volunteer contributions in the case of Wikipedia given that it is a free service, but not for a venture that will generate cash for its owners like Wikia.
And lastly, how many advertisers of some description can we expect to find that will pay for add placement in Wikia’s page for underwater basket-weaving?
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